Competitiveness of district

David Gill can win Illinois’ 13th Congressional District.


The Illinois Legislature drew the 13th district to be won by a Democrat. It leans 2 points more Democratic than average (ranked D+1 by the Cook Political Report) and President Barack Obama won the district decisively over John McCain by a margin of 55-44.

The Cook Political Report rated the race as one of the 20 most competitive in the country.

The district was featured by the Washington Post as one of the 10 Districts that might surprise you

“It became a swing district thanks to Democrats’ redistricting plan, and the longtime incumbent’s exit means it should be very competitive.” Washington Post, 5/11/2012

David Gill was recently named to the DCCC’s highly competitive Red-to-Blue program. Dr. Gill was added to this list because his campaign surpassed demanding fundraising, organizing, and infrastructure goals and skillfully demonstrated to voters that he’s a problem-solver who will protect the middle class when elected to Congress.

“Dr Gill’s campaign to stand up to special interest influences and clean up Washington has inspired tremendous grassroots momentum, and voters will be drawn to his determination to give Central and Southwest Illinois middle-class families the independent leadership they deserve.” — Congressman Steve Israel, DCCC Chairman

What our latest polling says about why David can win:

Victoria Research & Consulting conducted a new opinion poll in the 13th Congressional District of Illinois on August 4-7, 2012 that shows David Gill continues to lead in the race for Congress. In the poll conducted among 400 registered likely 2012 general election voters, Dr. Gill holds a six point lead in the initial trial heat–36% for Democrat David Gill to 30% for Republican Rodney Davis and 9% for Independent John Hartman, with the remainder undecided. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 4.9%.

Rodney Davis has made no progress at all since an earlier April poll, in which the Republican got 31% of the vote against Dr. Gill. Gill’s lead continues to grow in additional ballot tests throughout the course of the poll. David Gill has a solid base of supporters in the Champaign/Bloomington area, whereas Rodney Davis is an unknown quantity, with 4 out of 5 voters in the district not recognizing his name at all.

Survey respondents also gave the Democratic candidate for Congress a large advantage over the Republican in fighting for the middle class (51-32), understanding the challenges facing ordinary working people (46-30) and being “on your side” (43-34).

Dr. Gill’s profile as an outsider who has never been on a public payroll or taken orders from a politician resonated with 13th District voters, along with Gill’s strong background in health care and his willingness to stand up to Wall Street and turn down all campaign contributions from corporate PACs and lobbyists. After poll respondents hear these descriptions of Gill, the Democrat’s lead expands to 10 points.